Maritime Forecasting

Purpose

In an era marked by geopolitical instability, climate risks, and volatile trade patterns, this scientific project explores a vital question:
How do varying levels of predictability (noise) across different trade routes affect human freight rate forecasting accuracy and confidence?

Participants will forecast ocean freight rates on key global trade routes, helping researchers analyze how predictability (or lack thereof) impacts forecasting outcomes.

Scope

We are inviting participants from three key groups. No prior forecasting experience is needed—just your curiosity and engagement. 

• Professional Experts (e.g., maritime, logistics)
• Academic Experts
• Non-Experts with an interest in forecasting

Benefits for Participants

• Contribute to cutting-edge research in forecasting and maritime trade
• Learn about forecasting techniques, e.g. insights from Tetlock’s and Kahneman’s work
• Receive practical tips and feedback throughout the tournament
• Compete for a prize awarded to the top forecaster

Format & Duration

• Approximately 8 - 12 forecasting rounds
• Submit monthly forecasts (with optional comments) 
• Participation is fully online via the Confido App
• The app is easy to use, intuitive, and designed for forecasters of all levels
• Use any private or public information available but refrain from algorithmic or machine learning support (such as Chat GPT) 

Let's go, get started

This is the link to the forecasting tool.  

For questions or further information, contact Richard Borggreve (Kühne Logistics University).